Alan Shearer backs Leeds United to beat Sunderland despite injury doubts

Alan Shearer’s prediction gives Leeds United a chance to turn a difficult team selection into a valuable away win. But with Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor and Anton Stach all doubts, Daniel Farke’s side may have little room for error when they visit Sunderland at the Stadium of Light. The question isn’t simply whether Leeds can create chances; it’s whether they can keep their shape and sustain pressure if several regular options are unavailable.

Leeds United were widely viewed as favourites this week. The uncertainty over three key players has changed the feel of the fixture, though. Chris Sutton expects a 1-1 draw, the same score as last season’s meeting at Sunderland. That difference in outlook matters: Shearer is weighing Sunderland’s recent league run, while Sutton’s forecast reflects how a close contest can resist a straightforward reading of form. For Leeds, a draw might be defensible given the doubts, but it would leave the opportunity for a second away win of the season unclaimed.

Shearer sees Sunderland’s problems continuing

In his Premier League predictions column for Metro, Shearer picked Leeds to win. Sunderland have lost five and drawn one of their last seven league games, and the former Newcastle striker believes their struggles reflect both the demands of European football and a thin squad. Those are related pressures: a demanding schedule can expose limited depth, while absences leave a manager with fewer ways to rotate or change a game. Shearer’s forecast is therefore based on more than the run of results alone.

“Sunderland are struggling; one reason is because of Europe, and one reason is that they haven’t got Brian Brobbey in there; he’s been out injured,” Shearer said.

Brobbey hasn’t featured in the Premier League since scoring a hat-trick against Manchester City in September. Sunderland manager Regis Le Bris has confirmed the Dutch forward will be available against Leeds, giving the hosts a potential boost up front. Availability doesn’t guarantee an immediate return to his earlier impact, but it changes the question Sunderland must answer: can they turn a returning attacking option into a more productive league performance? Leeds will have to account for that possibility even if the forward’s role or influence remains uncertain.

Shearer also pointed to criticism from within the Sunderland camp after last weekend’s performance. “They’ll need a reaction. I’m not sure they’ll get it,” he said, adding that Leeds’ travelling support could help the visitors. His prediction: “I’m going to go away to win Leeds.” A reaction is often discussed as if it were automatic, but it still has to show up in the work of the match: better decisions, more reliable defending and a sharper response when possession changes hands. Leeds will want to prevent the home side from building momentum early. Here’s the thing: a difficult run can make the first goal especially influential, because it may either settle the hosts or deepen their frustration.

Leeds’ selection problem puts depth under scrutiny

Leeds’ injury picture makes Shearer’s call a bold one. Farke has described all three players as major doubts, and a weakened starting lineup would make an away victory a significant test of the squad’s depth. The absences could affect different parts of the side, so the issue isn’t just replacing names one for one. Farke may need to consider how any changes alter the balance between defending, carrying the ball forward and offering a threat near goal.

That’s where a match can become a test of planning as much as personnel. If the doubtful players can’t start, Leeds may need their available options to cover more ground or take on different responsibilities. The bench could matter, too: substitutions are less useful when the players coming on can’t change the pace or shape of the game. A disciplined opening would help Leeds avoid having to chase the contest with limited choices.

The numbers here are underwhelming. Leeds managed only two away league wins across their entire previous Premier League campaign, so even a second road victory this season would represent a meaningful step in a specific area. It wouldn’t establish a new pattern by itself, but it could give Farke a result to build on. This is more significant than it looks: away wins test a team’s ability to manage pressure without the comfort of its home crowd.

Form in two competitions tells different stories

Sunderland sit bottom of the table, but their European results suggest the league position doesn’t tell the whole story: they’ve collected two wins and a draw from three Europa League matches. That contrast is useful context, not proof that Sunderland are about to reproduce their European performances in the league. Different opponents and match conditions can expose different strengths and weaknesses, and a short run of results gives only a limited view of either.

Still, Leeds would need to handle a side capable of performing well in another competition, even as Sunderland try to reverse their domestic form. The hosts’ poor league sequence gives Leeds an opening, but it also makes the response to recent criticism a central part of the contest. If you’re working through the matchup, it’s worth separating Sunderland’s league difficulties from any assumption that they lack quality altogether. Leeds will have to earn control rather than rely on the table to do the work.

And yet, European results can’t erase the significance of six winless league games in the last seven. Sunderland need domestic points, and the return of Brobbey gives them another option as they seek them. Leeds, meanwhile, must decide whether to press an opponent under pressure or keep the game controlled and wait for an opening. Neither approach is risk free. The side that handles those trade-offs better may determine whether Shearer’s prediction looks sharp or premature.

What an away win would mean

A victory would also give Leeds their second away league win of the season. They managed only two on the road across their entire previous Premier League campaign. Turning draws into wins away from home is a clear route to a stronger season; this fixture will show whether they can start doing it with key players potentially missing. One match can’t settle that larger question, but it can reveal whether the team has enough flexibility to secure points when its preferred lineup is in doubt.

For Farke, the practical challenge is to make the available players’ roles clear and keep the side composed if the match becomes tight. For Sunderland, the priority is to make their home advantage count and convert the return of a forward into a more effective league showing. That said, Shearer’s prediction still rests on an uncertain mix of form, fitness and response. A Leeds win would be valuable; a draw, as Sutton expects, would underline how little separates the teams on the day. The details will matter.

More on Leeds’ team selection

Farke to give Leeds star a chance to impress amid injury news